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Jun 20, 2013
06/13
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in fact, i think the economy -- the real economy where we spend our time is actually many a little stronger than the numbers show and, again, we talk about a few minutes ago housing is really important. housing has led every recovery to participate in a big way. even bigger than the numbers. housing punches its way because it affects people's attitude. also, ag is doing relatively well. energy. who would have guessed that we would be potentially -- >> peak oil, the whole notion of it, the notion of peak oil, you have 1,000 year's worth now if you take china's reserve and everyone's reserve. >> we have not hit peak hydrocarbon. >> what we know today, we think we have 100 years or so in the u.s. what we might know 20 years from now could be 500. >> the way the information is going, i'm looking at all of this. when computers start designing themselves and everything else, we're going to move on to something else. you didn't run out of stones. >> the key is, we have now figured how to extract it from different types of things. >> right. >> we know there's more energy in the things we can't get
in fact, i think the economy -- the real economy where we spend our time is actually many a little stronger than the numbers show and, again, we talk about a few minutes ago housing is really important. housing has led every recovery to participate in a big way. even bigger than the numbers. housing punches its way because it affects people's attitude. also, ag is doing relatively well. energy. who would have guessed that we would be potentially -- >> peak oil, the whole notion of it, the...
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Jun 21, 2013
06/13
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the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases, anxiety increases. and investors seek certitude. the fed did not give us full certitude because they were talking one thing while the market was bringing rates up ahead of them. i think it's something we have to watch and just be flexible right now. >> you bring up an interesting point. the algorithms and the computerized trading. we've talked, you know, we were yus talking about someone else who was mentioned in morning money. i know that's something ron baron mentioned. doug cass was just talking about that. how big of a probl
the economy is getting better. but i think you have to slowly put your money that you have on the sidelines into cash. yesterday money only went to cash. you know, the commodity complex sold off. the bonds sold off. equities sold off. emerging markets got hammered. i think there's more dry powder on the sidelines. i think we just have to see if certain levels hold. but we're still very constructive going forward with a 1650 to 1700 s&p target. the problem is this. when volatility increases,...
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Jun 18, 2013
06/13
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economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural issues if we find ourselves back in the state in the recovery we currently have is going to be questioned. >> i think that's right nevada the confidence fa we node to keep if economy going seems to be correlated to the market's perception of what the fed is doing. and maybe we're surprised by that a little bit because the fundamentals shouldn't be so checked. but the pact is, they are. the psychology, the canesian animal spirits, if you will, seem to be realed to the market's reactions to where the fed is on the issue. and i think what you
economy would not only be a stall on the u.s. economy as we see the policies set be i the fed are being imitated this is what draggy has been doing in europe and in japan. i many own sense is that for a short period of time, probably another two or three quarters. it's important for america to continue to provide the leadership that will allow a global recovery to occur. then we do have to get on with the business of solving structural issues. i don't think it will be easier to solve structural...
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Jun 17, 2013
06/13
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the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty in the near term because what they don't really -- what they can't let happen is for the markets to price in the end game. they can't let the market price in when tapering ends. they don't care if people know when it begins. if people know when tapering ends, they can figure out the pathway and all the smart people i work with can price that the second after it happens. it will be too disruptive. >> that's why the market is even reacting to the idea that tapering is going to come at some point. it used to be that you'd react to the change in inter
the economy. not market, but overall economy. why do you think they need to stay around for so long? >> well, i don't think they do. i just think they will. i think if you look at how they've been talking lately and how they've changed their tone, they're talking a little more about i inflation, another reason to keep providing stimulus. i don't think that's by accident. i'd also say that i think a lot of what you're hearing out of the fed is really just designed to increase uncertainty...
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Jun 19, 2013
06/13
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i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i think that it's something that the committee wants to do. the committee is getting nervous with never ending qe at the same pace and then ever expanding balance sheet. there are many on the committee that do see progress, particularly in the labor market. and i think that's the key. we do need to get a better sense of what they're looking for in the labor market, number one. do we have to see hiring get even better than it's been. or just more of the same for a longer period good enough to take a step back. remember, to them, tapering is not a tight
i see a lot more softness in the economy. if i go back and read the beige book, i didn't everybody see the word robust ever. so i don't think that we'll be looking at a change in fed stance for the rest of this year. >> cody, too, from honeywell when he was on here, he was like, no, i don't see anything. so that's not even high tech stuff necessarily. julia, where are you on this? >> i think that they will try to continue to socialize the idea of adjusting the pace of purchases. i...